Collapse pass rate, funded lifetime, blowup risk, and true cost into one number. Is this challenge +EV or −EV for you?
100% of first $25K, then 90/10
Take-home per month = $4,000 × 90% = $3,600/mo. Expected months funded over 12 months at 20% monthly blowup = 4.7 months.
Expected value collapses four moving parts into one number. Most traders evaluate challenges on sticker price and pass rate alone. That misses the two things that actually move EV the most: how long you stay funded, and how much of the real cost is hidden in monthly fees and activation. EV forces all four variables — pass probability, funded lifetime, blowup risk, and true cost — into the same dollar unit so you can compare apples to apples.
The expected months funded term is where intuition breaks down. At your current 20% monthly blowup rate over a 12-month horizon, you don't get 12 months of profit — you get about 4.7 months. The geometric-survival formula compounds the blowup probability each month, so your realistic funded lifetime is almost always dramatically shorter than your time horizon. This is why firms with seemingly generous conditions can still be −EV for volatile strategies.
Break-even pass rate is the single most useful number on this page. It answers: given your monthly profit expectation, blowup risk, and the firm's fees, what pass probability makes this a zero-expected-value bet? If your honest self-assessed pass rate is below that number, the challenge is negative EV. Industry data on actual pass rates (7-14%) gives you a sanity check — if your break-even is above 15%, you need a very good reason to believe you're in the top decile of traders.
Refunds change the math asymmetrically. FTMO, FundedNext, and E8 refund the challenge fee on first payout — but only if you pass and actually reach a payout. In this calculator we treat refund as conditional on passing, which is optimistic: industry data suggests many funded traders never hit a payout. For a conservative view, model refund as p_pass × p_reach_payout × refund — adjust the refund input down if you want to reflect that.
What this tool does NOT model: consistency-rule disqualification after passing, payout caps, tiered profit splits (shown as flat here — e.g. Apex's 100% of first $25K then 90/10 is approximated at 90%), scaling plan compounding, or the probability that you'll reset mid-challenge. Treat the output as a directional estimate, not a precise forecast — the break-even pass rate and the sensitivity chart shape are more reliable than the headline EV dollar figure.
EV is only as good as its inputs. The pass probability number is the one most people get wrong — use the Monte Carlo Pass Probability calculator to derive one from your actual win rate and risk:reward rather than guessing. The True Cost calculator gives you firm-specific fee totals to plug back into this model. And if your EV sits close to zero, the Trailing Drawdown Visualizer shows how the firm's drawdown mechanics change your realistic blowup probability.